Buy-and-finish beef — 5-year cash flow

The timing view. Buy calves Year 1 (nothing to sell yet), first boxes Year 2, herd & subscriber base ramping to full by Year 3. Shows the cash trough you must fund, when it turns positive, and payback. Owner-operator, SEK.

Cash you must fund
Year-1 low point
Cash-positive (operations)
annual op. cash flow > 0
Full payback
cumulative back above 0
Year-5 cash flow
steady-state run-rate

The J-curve — annual & cumulative cash

Bars = each year's net cash flow (red = out, green = in). Line = cumulative cash position.

Net cash out (year)
Net cash in (year)
Cumulative position

Year by year

Model. Calves bought each year ramp from the Year-1 scale to full by Year 3; an animal bought in one year is finished and sold the next, so Year 1 has purchases but no sales. Direct-sales share ramps (0→45%→65%→mature) as the subscriber base builds; the rest goes to abattoir. Calf cost is booked when bought; feed, health, slaughter, cutting, delivery & marketing when sold; land & overhead annually with the herd. Upfront infrastructure (housing, fencing, equipment, manure, net of ~40% grant) is booked in Year 1; ~75% is typically financed by loan, so your equity at risk is well below the trough shown. Subsidies (if claimed from Year 1) are land-based and arrive before your first sales. Planning estimates, not financial advice.