The timing view. Buy calves Year 1 (nothing to sell yet), first boxes Year 2, herd & subscriber base ramping to full by Year 3. Shows the cash trough you must fund, when it turns positive, and payback. Owner-operator, SEK.
Bars = each year's net cash flow (red = out, green = in). Line = cumulative cash position.
Timing questions — the J-curve is driven as much by when money arrives as by how much.
| Question | Why it matters | Where the answer comes from |
|---|---|---|
| When in the year are the subsidies actually paid?Blocking | The model assumes land-based support arrives before the first sale and holds Year 1 near breakeven. If payment slips to the following spring, the trough deepens and the financing need changes. | Jordbruksverket's payment plan for the support year, and Länsstyrelsen Stockholm on typical timing for a first-time applicant. |
| What working capital does the bank require you to hold?Blocking | Year 1 carries first calves plus infrastructure with no sales. A covenant or a required buffer changes the equity number materially. | The bank, in writing, before the first calves are bought. |
| How fast can the direct-sales share really ramp?Important | The model ramps 0 → 45% → 65% → mature. A slower ramp pushes more animals to the abattoir price and delays payback. | The waitlist built before Year 1 is the best early evidence. |
| What happens to cash if a whole cohort has to be sold early?Background | Losing a lease or a drought could force early sales at abattoir prices. The model has no scenario for it. | Worth running as a manual stress case once the lease terms are known. |
Model. Calves bought each year ramp from the Year-1 scale to full by Year 3; an animal bought in one year is finished and sold the next, so Year 1 has purchases but no sales. Direct-sales share ramps (0→45%→65%→mature) as the subscriber base builds; the rest goes to abattoir. Calf cost is booked when bought; feed, health, slaughter, cutting, delivery & marketing when sold; land & overhead annually with the herd. Upfront infrastructure (housing, fencing, equipment, manure, net of ~40% grant) is booked in Year 1; ~75% is typically financed by loan, so your equity at risk is well below the trough shown. Subsidies (if claimed from Year 1) are land-based and arrive before your first sales. Planning estimates, not financial advice.