Customer math — how many subscribers to sell your herd?

Work backwards from animals to the customer base you must build and keep. Set your throughput, how you split the meat across channels, how much each customer buys, and your churn & conversion — it recalculates live.

Channel mix (% of your meat)
Remainder to abattoir/wholesale: 10%
Direct channels exceed 100% — trimming abattoir to 0.
How much each buys per year
Retention & acquisition
Active households needed
–
New sign-ups / month
–
to replace churn (steady state)
Restaurant / trade accounts
–
Corporate / gift orders / yr
–
seasonal, high-margin
Households per animal
–
the "8–9 rule" benchmark
Share of Stockholm households
–
of ~1,000,000

Where your meat goes

Households
Restaurants
Corporate/gift
Abattoir

Customers you need (by type)

The acquisition funnel (per year, steady state)

To hold your base steady against churn — this is your marketing engine's annual job.

Open questions

The acquisition funnel is built on assumptions no Swedish source publishes.

QuestionWhy it mattersWhere the answer comes from
What churn do comparable Swedish meat-box schemes actually see?BlockingThe model assumes ~30% a year, which sets the whole replacement-signup workload. No public figure for this exists.Ask operators directly — Gårdssällskapet, Hagshultskossorna and similar will often say. Otherwise measure your own from month one.
What share of REKO customers convert to a subscription?ImportantREKO is the plan's cheapest acquisition channel, but its value depends entirely on this conversion rate.Measurable in your first two REKO seasons: count buyers, then count how many take a standing order.
How much meat does a household actually take per year?ImportantThe 8–9 households per animal figure sets the customer count. Freezer space, not appetite, is often the real limit.Your own order data after one season; ask existing box sellers what their average customer consumes.
Will 3–5 restaurant accounts take the premium cuts reliably?ImportantRestaurants are the answer to carcass balance, but they are seasonal, price-sensitive and slow to pay.Talk to three Stockholm restaurants now; ask what they pay, what volume, and on what payment terms.

How it works. Total meat = animals × saleable kg. Each channel's kg ÷ how much a customer of that type buys = customers needed. Steady-state sign-ups = active households × churn (you must replace lapsed customers to stay flat; growth needs more). Leads = sign-ups ÷ conversion, where a "lead" is an engaged prospect (newsletter sign-up, REKO inquiry, market visitor), not a random impression. Stockholm household base ~1,000,000 (greater Stockholm). Planning tool — round generously and build a buffer.