Steady-state (year 3+), premium direct-sales model near Stockholm: Angus, ~80% sold direct as subscription boxes (~265 SEK/kg blended), leased land, outdoor wintering, organic + naturbete + young-farmer support. Owner-operator basis (your labour funds your income, not costed). All figures SEK, ex-VAT — planning estimates, not quotes.
Your cash at risk stays small (leased); annual profit dwarfs it. Profit split into the standalone business (blue) and subsidies (orange).
Read your owner income honestly: a third is subsidy, a chunk is what plain commodity farming would earn, and the rest is what your selling adds.
30-cow net profit under four selling outcomes. Even the commodity floor is cash-positive (subsidies cushion it) — the risk is a smaller reward, not a loss.
Premium direct vs selling everything to the abattoir — the pure return on your go-to-market ability, by herd size. Near-zero extra capital to capture it.
What the returns depend on that the dashboard cannot know.
| Question | Why it matters | Where the answer comes from |
|---|---|---|
| What will a bank actually lend against a leased holding, and at what rate?Blocking | The model assumes 75% debt at 4.5%. Security over rented land is weaker, so both the share and the rate may be worse — and the equity-at-risk figure moves with them. | Two agricultural banks and Landshypotek; ask specifically what security they take when the land is leased. |
| Should the owner's labour be charged in the headline figure?Important | The dashboard can show it either way. At ~1,500 hours a year, charging labour moves the result by roughly 345,000 SEK — the difference between a business and a job. | A decision, not a search: pick one basis and use it consistently in every version shown to a lender. |
| Is the ROI-on-equity figure meaningful when the capital base is deliberately small?Important | Leasing keeps capital at risk low, which flatters the ratio. The absolute profit and the margin are the honest metrics. | Present absolute profit first in any external document; keep ROI as a secondary figure. |
How to read this. Owner-operator basis: your full-time labour is not subtracted, so "profit" blends your salary and business profit — the standalone-business figure is the blue portion. ROI-as-a-percentage looks very high only because leasing keeps capital at risk small; the meaningful metrics are the absolute annual profit, the ~59% margin, and the aqua "return on your selling skill." Years 1–2 are an investment phase (herd + subscriber base building, cash-negative) not shown here. Assumes you secure ~60 ha of qualifying leased pasture and build/retain ~270 subscriber households. Model assumptions: Angus 320 kg carcass, 0.92 calving × 0.94 survival, 2 ha/cow, 75% loan at 4.5%, Swedish 2025–26 subsidy rates. Estimates for planning, not financial advice.