Swedish beef consumption — trend & 3-year outlook

Per person per year, carcass-weight equivalent (Jordbruksverket basis). Actual through 2025; 2026–2028 projected from the EU / OECD-FAO downtrend. The amount actually eaten (boneless) is roughly half these figures, ~10–11 kg.

Now · 2025
22.4 kg
beef per person (≈235,000 t total)
Last 3 yrs · 2022→25
−3%
flat 2022–24, then −3.7% in 2025
Last 10 yrs
−14%
from ~26.1 kg in 2015
Next 3 yrs · proj.
≈ −1 to −3%/yr
continued gradual decline

Beef eaten per person, 2015–2028

Solid = official/actual · dashed = projected. Markers ● mark firmly-sourced data points.

Actual (2015–2025)
Projected (2026–2028)

Year-over-year change — “how much did it grow?”

Annual % change in beef per person. Green = growth, red = decline. It has mostly shrunk — one small up-year (2023) in the last decade.

Growth
Decline
Projected

Why a shrinking market is still your opportunity

Consumption is drifting down ~1–3%/year — but this was never a volume play. Two forces run in opposite directions: demand is easing, while domestic production is falling faster (the national cattle herd shrank ~5% in a year).

The result: imports now cover ~46% of Swedish beef, and farm-gate prices jumped +12% in 2025 despite lower consumption. The demand that is growing is qualitative — Swedish-origin, organic/KRAV, grass-fed and naturbete premium beef. A shrinking-but-premiumizing market with a widening domestic supply gap suits a small direct-sales producer competing on story and origin, not tonnage.

Show data table
YearBeef kg/capitaYoY changeBasis

Basis & sources. Figures are total consumption in carcass-weight equivalent (Jordbruksverket’s standard measure). Firmly-sourced anchor points: 2015 ≈ 26.1, 2016 peak ≈ 26.2, 2022 = 23.1, 2024 ≈ 23.2, 2025 = 22.4 kg (−3.7% YoY, −14% over 10 yrs). Intermediate years 2017–2021 trace the documented steady decline (indicative). 2026–2028 is an estimate from the EU short-term outlook and OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook (EU per-capita beef ~9.9 kg, −0.9% in 2025, continued decline expected) applied to Sweden — there is no official Swedish multi-year forecast. Sources: Jordbruksverket 2025, Hållbart Matsystem, AHDB / EU outlook, OECD-FAO 2025–2034.